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Playing Time Prediction

Page history last edited by Marc 1 year, 5 months ago

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Problem

«Dave, I must leave at around 11 p.m., so we have about three hours to play. Which scenarios will we be able to complete within three hours?» 

- or -

«Jeff, this scenario here looks great. But will we be able to finish it tonight?»

 

Sounds familiar to you? If we like it or not, we are not always able to play ASL scenarios «open end» until conclusion. So a well-considered scenario choice makes best use of your precious ASL playing time. After all, I assume, you also don't like to finish way too early (but too late for another scenario), or breaking up a scenario because you're running out of time.

 

Solution

«Dave, I must leave at around 11 p.m., so we have about three hours to play. Which scenarios will we be able to complete within three hours?» 

The following listing of ASL Scenarios includes an prediction of their respective playing times, based on an extrapolation of empirical data (see below, «Background»). The playing times exclude setup time and also significant (> 5mins.) playing breaks. The current accuracy (in statistical terms, the confidence interval) is +/- 6%, i.e. you can expect 95% of the scenarios to be completed within +/- 6% of their respective estimated playing time. 

 

Download a listing of Playing Times of more than 400 ASL Scenarios (.pdf, 208kB), Version February 2016. The listing is ordered by playing time.

 

These Scenarios are included in the listing:

  • ASL Starter Kit #1 — Infantry
  • ASL Starter Kit Bonus Pack #1
  • ASL Starter Kit #2 — Guns
  • ASL Starter Kit #3 — Vehicles
  • Module #1 — Beyond Valor (1985)
  • Module #2 — Paratrooper (1986)
  • Module #3 — Yanks (1987)
  • Module #4 — Partisan! (1987)
  • Module #5 — West of Alamein (1988)
  • Module #5a — For King and Country (2004)
  • Module #6 — The Last Hurrah (1988)
  • Module #7 — Hollow Legions (1989)
  • Module #10 — Croix de Guerre (1992)
  • Module #11 — Doomed Battalions (1998)
  • Module #13 — Rising Sun (2013) 
  • Historical Module «Red Barricades»
  • Historical Module «Pegasus Bridge»
  • Historical Module «Blood Reef Tarawa»
  • Historical Module «Operation Veritable»
  • Historical Module «Valor of the Guards»
  • Action Pack #1
  • Action Pack #2
  • Action Pack #3 - Few Returned
  • Action Pack #4 - Normandy
  • Action Pack #5 - East Front
  • Action Pack #6 - A Decade of War
  • Action Pack #7
  • Action Pack #8 - Roads to Rome 
  • Action Pack #11 - 29 let's go!
  • Out of the Bunker #1 - Scenario Bundle
  • Into the Rubble - Bounding Fire Productions
  • Journal #8
  • Various individual ASL scenarios (from ASL Generals and Journals) 

 

«Jeff, this scenario here looks great. But will we be able to finish it tonight?»

In case the scenario you have in hand isn't included in the provided list of ASL Scenarios above, there's good news for you. The extrapolation of empirical data works for any given ASL scenario. The only thing you have to calculate is the Scenario Size. The Scenario Size is an objective measure of how «big» or rather «long» a scenario is. The Scenario Size is based on a multiplication of the number of units in both sides by the number of game turns.

 

  • All Personnel counters (SMC and MMC), as well as unarmed vehicles with an inherent driver count as 1 unit.
  • Armed vehicles, OBA modules and air support each count as 2 units (regardless in which game turn they become available).
  • All other counters (e.g., Support Weapons, Fortifications, Concealment Counters, etc.) have no impact on the Scenario Size and are disregarded.

 

 

 

Download this Scenario_Playing Time_Calculator (.xls, 25kB) to find out the size and resulting estimated playing time of a particular scenario. The example values in the spreadsheet illustrate the calculation of the Scenario Size of OB3_Brasche Encounter (.pdf, 778kB). Please let me know if you have any problems understanding or using this Scenario Playing Time Calculator.

 

Background

The time that is required to finish a particular ASL scenario is not random. Indeed, most players developed a gut feeling to make a rough estimate how long a scenario will take to complete. Basically, there are three factors to consider: The chosen scenario, the players involved (characterized by their individual rules knowledge and playing speed) and finally the playing environment (interruptions, lighting, noise, etc.):

 

I always believed that the chosen Scenario has by far the highest impact on the total playing time. So I started to record the actual playing times of various ASL scenarios. It turned out that the Scenario Size (see above) based playing time prediction worked out extremely well. The current data set looks like this:

 

 

As you see, the Regression line can currently describe the actual data points very well. About 66% (as signified by the R-square-value) of all variability in playing times can be predicted by the Scenario Size. The remaining variability comes from the other contributing factors «players» and «playing environment».  

 

What is a Regression line?

 

The following description has been written by Marisa Swanson from eHow

 

 

 

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